What’s That Sucking Sound?

Posted: April 13, 2011 in Convergence, Smartpone
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That sucking sound you here is the phone sucking in other devices. As the phone becomes your computer it isn’t content to stop there. More and more devices will get pulled in. Pity the poor PND. What, you don’t understand the acronym? It stands for Personal Navigation Device. You know those. That’s what you used to own before you realized your smartphone did an entirely adequate job as a GPS device and was always with you.

It isn’t just the PND. In the US, Apple iOS devices (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad) and the Nintendo DS have about equal market share. Apple’s market share is increasing. Sony is finding it necessary to merge the PSP into a phone. It gets worse. Microsoft hopes that merging Xbox games and Xbox Live into Windows Mobile 7 will help its mobile platform. Portable gaming is being taken over by smartphones and the related spinoff devices such as the iPod Touch.

Do you need some other devices? Let me add two more – the movie camera and the still camera. Dedicated devices are much better than using a smartphone. However, smartphones are becoming good enough for most day to day use. When news breaks worldwide the first video is usually shot from a phone.

Now do you see the scope of convergence or are you saying “Ok, but that’s pretty much it.” Think broader. With near field communication, NFC, the phone will become your wallet. You won’t need to carry credit cards. Your phone will serve that purpose. Just “swipe” your phone near a reader and you are done. It will become a controller for your home and a remote for your TV. This clip says it all.

The Smartphone Becomes the Computer

Posted: April 13, 2011 in Convergence, Smartpone, Transparency
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The computer is merging with the phone. The circuitry to do this is easy. Ouch! I can hear my colleagues in the semiconductor industry yelling at me already. What is being accomplished at the chip level is truly amazing. Processor speeds are hitting 1.5GHz and we have dual core processors with quad core just around the corner. Graphics are now 3D capable and 1080P playback is supported. Storage is 32GB or better. 512MB of RAM is common with 1GB on its way. Wow! That’s a nice laptop from a couple of years ago and a nice desktop from four or five years ago. Still, this is easy compared to the human factors issues.

The transition from desktop to laptop was easy with relatively simple human factors issues involved. The difficult part was the hardware. Software changed very little. Human factors involved things like making the screen thinner and the keyboard better. The smartphone brought basic issues to be resolved. Some, including whether to have a physical keyboard or not, are still being played out in the marketplace. As capability improved, Microsoft went down the “featuritis” path. Windows Mobile started to generate the first batch of application content for phones. But.. it took Apple to blow the doors wide open with the iPhone and its associated app store.

Why Apple won when Microsoft had such a huge head start involves many things and will be the subject of a future discussion. It is a fascinating topic. The simple answer is that Apple used the emerging power included in smartphone hardware to reinvent the user interface. In hindsight, everything prior to the iPhone either feels limited or clunky. With the iPhone we finally got a pone OS that understood it was on a phone rather than trying to be a mini laptop. The success of the iPhone user interface is illustrated by a friend of mine. He said that after getting an iPhone it was frustrating to use his Garmin GPS. He kept wanting to swipe the screen. That’s the sign of a good UI. It quickly becomes natural and you get frustrated when similar devices don’t operate the same way.

Today we have iOS, Android, WebOS, Windows Mobile 7 and several other contenders in the phone/tablet computer arena. We have phones with keyboards and phones without. There are big screens and small screens. With Android there is a mini battle of who can best customize the Android UI. The take-away is that this is a major trend. The path is not clear and is rapidly developing. The winning formula today may not be the winning formula tomorrow. The take-away is that this is a major trend.

According to IDC, there were more smartphones sold in 2010 than PCs. Think about that. Let it sink in. The phone is becoming the dominant computing platform. In the future the laptop will be secondary to the phone. It will augment the phone rather than the smartphone augmenting the laptop. As the phone takes on this new role it will have to evolve way beyond its present state. As this happens the phone will consume more and more devices. Convergence will expand well beyond computer and phone. In addition, a second trend will move to the forefront. That trend is transparency. This includes both transparency of use, i.e. the UI extending across many devices, and transparency of data.

Classic convergence – The PDA and phone merge

Posted: April 12, 2011 in Apple, Convergence, Google, Microsoft, RIM, Smartpone
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The merging of the PDA and the phone is a done deal. We have moved on to the smartphone that can run apps beyond those of the classic PDA. Still, for many, this is their view of convergence. The Palm Treo showed the way but success led to myopia and Palm is no more. OK, it’s still there and WebOS is being pushed by HP. We’ll see. Call it a dark horse in a tough race. For too long Palm thought that merging the classic PDA with the phone was where convergence would end. They were wrong and by the time they realized it they were way behind. Myopia resulted in opportunity and market position being lost.

Microsoft saw the need for the smartphone. They should be the big winner today. They aren’t. Like so many in the high tech area they thought it was about feature count. They took the merging of the computer and the phone too literally and thought the smartphone should be a smaller laptop. They were wrong. In reality the computer and the phone are moving to a merged but very different use model.  Understanding convergence without understanding transparency can lead to failure. It has for Microsoft. By any rational, technical feature count analysis they should be a big winner. For many years they have had a small version of Office on Windows Mobile phones. They have a real directory structure. Of all of the smartphones they are the closest in feel to a traditional computer. Yet, the iPhone blew them away.  Interestingly, in the end, Microsoft will turn out to have been more right than wrong. Smartphones will gain a directory structure. Trust me on this one. Even Apple will eventually succumb to this. Already the iPhone has Office type apps that sort of work with MS Office files. Microsoft is the loser who gets to say “But I was really right!” With Windows Mobile 7 they stand a chance but they are number three in a tough race.  We’ll have to wait and see if they can get away from “featuritis” and understand both convergence and transparency.

Next up in the success leads to myopia crowd is RIM and the Blackberry line. What a great success story. The push mail capability brought by RIM has revolutionized the phone. Back when email was an afterthought on phones, RIM made it primary and did it with innovation, insight and excellent execution. Just as importantly, RIM courted the IT community and insinuated themselves into the fabric of business life. Today we take mail on our smartphone for granted. RIM is the gold standard for mail connectivity and Blackerry phones are known for their keyboards that make texting and email easier than on other phones. Surely RIM will be a winner as convergence proceeds. Well, in the words of Leslie Nielson in Airplane, “Don’t call me Shirley.” As smartphones have moved from email device to small, app running, computers, RIM has been left behind. Do you see a pattern? RIM left the door open for Apple and Google. Not only did these companies take the developing space RIM ignored but they are now attacking RIM at its core. Just read this article to see how the corporate world, including financial companies, is opening up to Apple. Yes, Apple! The company that was ostracized from the corporate environment and ridiculed by IT departments everywhere is being warmly accepted into the corporate world. Times are changing. The corporate walls that protected RIM have been breached with the iPad leading the way. RIM’s PlayBook is too little too late. If it had hit the market place two years ago it might have secured the corporate world from attack and had IT departments still recommending RIM. Yet again success and lack of vision have led to stagnation.

All of this is what I call classic convergence. The phone merged with the PDA and then became the premier email access device. It would be easy to think that we are nearly done. In reality it has just started.  That’s because convergence is much, much bigger than calendars, address books and email. Stay tuned as I explore the many areas making up convergence and how this ties in with transparency.


Big! Very, Very BIG!

Posted: April 12, 2011 in Convergence, Transparency, Trends
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I have mentioned convergence and, to a smaller extent, transparency. Both of these are much bigger in scope than what is commonly written about in the media. The trends are broader, stronger and deeper than is generally discussed and will have far ranging impacts on both software and hardware. Our lives are in the process of being transformed.   Hardware devices will come and go.  Some of the near term trends are but intermediate steps destined to be footnotes with our children telling their children “I remember when…”   In Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy we are told “The universe is big. Very, very big.” I am telling you that convergence and transparency are big. They are very, very big. How big? Big enough to transform our lives rather than being just a small shift. Big enough to cause hardware and software to be created and then to fade away. Big enough to have major companies fight for supremacy or, in some cases, survival. There are companies today wasting precious engineering resources designing yesterday’s products because they are looking so near term that they miss where things are really headed.

Data data everywhere and never the twain shall meet

Posted: April 11, 2011 in Convergence, Transparency
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Enough of the FAX machine. I want to return to the idea of segregation. Segregation, and consequently convergence, is a lot broader in scope than FAX machines and copiers. There is also data segregation. We have data on our desktop at home and data on our computer at work and data on our laptops and data on our phones. Remember the little locker folder from Microsoft that was supposed to aid with synchronizing your data? No? OK, I don’t remember much about it either. Today we synchronize through Google or Dropbox or MobileMe. This allows us to share some of our data across various devices. But segregation and hence upcoming convergence is broader than that. Whether it is a church directory, our checkbook, an old family recipe, or a list of To Do items we have data everywhere and much of it is physically compartmentalized. We are comfortable with this. Mankind has centuries of adaptation to this model. Just think of the traditional file cabinet. We place things in physical locations and then later, when we need them, we try to remember where they reside. I suspect most people reading this know that this is changing but do they understand how truly pervasive this trend is?

OK, now it’s time for a brief side trip so I can hint at what will be a major upcoming topic in future posts. I want to go back to the FAX machine. When the FAX started getting merged with the printer one thing that made the move successful was the low learning curve. The buttons on the multifunction printer were dedicated FAX buttons. With LCD displays this is now a little different but the concept is the same. Select FAX and the “buttons” are all there. This transparency of use, where there is little training and it is seemingly obvious how to operate a device is a major underlying trend today. Look around and think of all of the different interface systems you learn. There is the TV remote, the game system, the smartphone, and the computer. That’s just a start. Let’s move to the car where many have a complex interface be it IDRIVE or SYNC. Transparency of use, or the lack thereof, is broader than most understand. While related to the idea of ease of use, transparency is much bigger in scope and impact. Together with convergence these two trends are going to drive a major battle pitting many companies against each other and transforming how we use technology.

CONVERGENCE part1 – Preconvergence

Posted: April 11, 2011 in Convergence
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To fully understand convergence we need to first look at the preconvergence world i.e. technological segregation.  In a segregated world a radio is a radio. a TV is a TV. They provide separate functions. Not only is a computer a different animal but your laptop is mostly segregated from your desktop. Your games are played on dedicated devices or are boxes you take down from the shelf. Books are physical entities placed on a shelf.  This is the land of the DVD player, stereo system, Atari 2600 game system, paper checkbook, FAX machine, copier and many other discrete items. All provide distinct functionality. This is the land of segregation and it has fought a stiff battle against convergence.

For years segregation has been attacked. In many cases the attacks have been feeble to the point of making people believe convergence wouldn’t happen; at least not in some particular are.  Consider the FAX machine. For years there has been FAX software on computers tied to modems so you could FAX from your computer. Few used it. The simple user interface of the FAX won out. The first successful attempt was the merged FAX and printer. Here we have convergence at its lowest and simplest level. But there is something deeper going on here that has big implications for business. The printer convergence with the FAX machine is just a jagged step. Remember the hype over the paperless office? You don’t? Well, in the early days of the personal computer it was the rage. Paper would disappear or so the pundits said. A few years later someone noticed that even more paper was being used.  It seems the computer accelerated paper usage rather than decreasing it. The pundits were wrong; or were they?  This is an example of jagged, wandering paths (yes paths not path) to the final answer. If you jumped to the paperless concept you could take your company down a wrong path. Yet, in the end you would have been correct. We are headed to the paperless office but it is a winding road.   Let’s return to the lowly FAX machine. The first successful convergence is FAX machine and printer. This is a small step and easy on the user. The same buttons are there. But… now there is a scanner since a FAX machine needs one. Now you can scan a document. There is the PDF format. If someone doesn’t have a FAX you can now scan and email. Once this habit is established and becomes accepted why not just scan and email all the time? Finally the paperless office wins a small battle. The tide has begun to turn. What was predicted many years ago is starting to happen but with little fanfare.

Assessing Trends

Posted: January 21, 2011 in Trends
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How should we assess trends? Which ones will be long lasting and which will be little more than passing fads? Which ones will be major and change how we live our lives and which ones will be little more than fashion trends that change the style but not the substance? How do we look beyond the herd mentality? Read on.

Are there indicators of short term vs. long term trends? Yes! When trends appear clear cut they are often either short term in nature or more minor than most believe. The truly life changing trends only appear clear and obvious in hindsight.  A good example is the internet. Do you think business on the internet was a slam dunk? You need to look at Business Week talking about the failure of retail on the internet. That was 1994. Right after that Buycomp.com came into being and internet  retail was off and running. Why did they get it so wrong? Their comments from 1992 through 1996 followed a familiar pattern. There is first optimistic speculation about how everything will be transformed. Then there are the early failures followed by disillusionment. Finally there is the seemingly immediate success. Kurzweil pointed this pattern out in his discussions on The Law of Accelerating Returns.

When the path looks clear the trend is often minor. Why? We can’t see the future clearly and everyone has a different view. When we all agree it rarely means it is a clear major trend. Rather, it means it is a near term trend of lesser importance. Major trends are marked by a lack of clarity. This manifests itself through the myriad number of approaches taken. Many variations of a fuzzy vision compete for dominance.

Another characteristic of major trends is a jagged road to dominance. The path is not straight.  Here is a property that is of critical importance from a business standpoint. Your idea might be right in the end but it is of little consolation if your business first goes bankrupt.  Consider the Apple Newton. The idea of a tablet was correct but too early. What was needed was a first step to the PDA, i.e. Palm Pilot, then the only moderately successful smart phone, then the iPhone and finally the iPad. It is great to see the future but basing a business on a long range vision can lead to expensive failures if you don’t step back and ask how the masses will be lead in the near term.

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